How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	56
αARCH	0.0527	2.82***
βGARCH	0.9049	26.86***
γleverage	-0.0527	-0.76
λ₁tau intercept	0.8098	0.10
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0237	3.31***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9763	164.49***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	56
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0527	2.82***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9049	26.86***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0527	-0.76
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.8098	0.10
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0237	3.31***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9763	164.49***

V-Lab

Ceylon Tobacco Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Ceylon Tobacco Co Ltd Analyses