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Conduit Holdings Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

5,358.45

decreased by 362.53

1 Week

5,866.26

increased by 145.28

1 Month

6,572.56

increased by 851.58

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC

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graph of Conduit Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.09
αARCH0.0546
2.74***
βGARCH0.9317
81.55***
γleverage0.0275
0.71

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.09
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0546
2.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9317
81.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0275
0.71

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-