V-Lab
Cherat Papersack Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
6,396.40
1 Week
3,938.23
1 Month
3,475.66
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0623 | 3.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9582 | 71.72*** |
| γleverage | -0.0511 | -2.22** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1598 | 0.82 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8402 | 10.78*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0623 | 3.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9582 | 71.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0511 | -2.22** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1598 | 0.82 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8402 | 10.78*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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