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Cherat Papersack Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

6,396.40

increased by 2,526.72

1 Week

3,938.23

increased by 68.55

1 Month

3,475.66

decreased by 394.02

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

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graph of Cherat Papersack Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 10, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0623
3.51***
βGARCH0.9582
71.72***
γleverage-0.0511
-2.22**
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.03
λ₂forecast adj.0.1598
0.82
λ₃tau persistence0.8402
10.78***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0623
3.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9582
71.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0511
-2.22**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.03
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1598
0.82
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8402
10.78***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days