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ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

5,051.34

decreased by 178.44

1 Week

5,055.70

decreased by 174.08

1 Month

4,644.52

decreased by 585.26

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 4, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.93
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0598
19.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9423
543.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0043
-0.99

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days