V-Lab
ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,051.34
decreased by 178.44
1 Week
5,055.70
decreased by 174.08
1 Month
4,644.52
decreased by 585.26
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.93 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0598 | 19.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9423 | 543.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0043 | -0.99 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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