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Collective Mining Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

15,160.87

decreased by 902.53

1 Week

15,491.77

decreased by 571.63

1 Month

11,994.67

decreased by 4,068.73

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Collective Mining Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 1, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.04
αARCH0.0308
1.86*
βGARCH0.9325
94.86***
γleverage0.0736
1.81*

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.04
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0308
1.86*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9325
94.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0736
1.81*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-