V-Lab
CEM Zeytin Anonim Sirketi Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
22,240.10
1 Week
10,788.24
1 Month
2,416.76
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.36 |
| αARCH | 0.2842 | 1.83* |
| βGARCH | 0.6582 | 3.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.1152 | 0.16 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.36 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2842 | 1.83* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6582 | 3.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1152 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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