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CEM Zeytin Anonim Sirketi Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

22,240.10

increased by 12,508.44

1 Week

10,788.24

increased by 1,056.58

1 Month

2,416.76

decreased by 7,314.90

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CEM Zeytin Anonim Sirketi ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.36
αARCH0.2842
1.83*
βGARCH0.6582
3.14***
γleverage0.1152
0.16

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2842
1.83*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6582
3.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1152
0.16

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days