How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	51
αARCH	0.1814	8.00***
βGARCH	0.7307	26.81***
γleverage	-0.1814	-5.00***
λ₁tau intercept	4.3781	1.01
λ₂forecast adj.	0.2610	2.51**
λ₃tau persistence	0.7390	7.71***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	51
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1814	8.00***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7307	26.81***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1814	-5.00***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	4.3781	1.01
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.2610	2.51**
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.7390	7.71***

V-Lab

Central Costanera Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Central Costanera Sa Analyses