How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	121
αARCH	0.1108	6.60***
βGARCH	0.9172	110.27***
γleverage	-0.1107	-2.88***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0000	0.00
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0000	0.00
λ₃tau persistence	0.9971	136.38***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	121
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1108	6.60***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9172	110.27***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1107	-2.88***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0000	0.00
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0000	0.00
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9971	136.38***

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