How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	61
αARCH	0.1831	3.16***
βGARCH	0.6139	43.78***
γleverage	0.4059	3.80***
λ₁tau intercept	8.9860	0.06
λ₂forecast adj.	1.0000	11.85***
λ₃tau persistence	0.0000	0.00

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	61
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1831	3.16***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.6139	43.78***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.4059	3.80***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	8.9860	0.06
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	1.0000	11.85***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.0000	0.00

V-Lab

Bpl Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Bpl Ltd Analyses