Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Societe BIC SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

4,595.26

increased by 228.92

1 Week

4,019.19

decreased by 347.15

1 Month

3,972.48

decreased by 393.86

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Societe BIC SA ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 28, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 163% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~167 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 163% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1065
11.94***
βGARCH0.8026
58.04***
γleverage0.1734
9.12***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.09
λ₂forecast adj.0.1016
2.87***
λ₃tau persistence0.8984
25.29***

0.996

Persistence

167d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1065
11.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8026
58.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1734
9.12***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.09
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1016
2.87***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8984
25.29***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

167 days