V-Lab
Yrglm Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
3,592.70
increased by 27.56
1 Week
3,498.48
decreased by 66.66
1 Month
4,201.37
increased by 636.23
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 512 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 35% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.29** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1208 | 13.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8564 | 323.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0429 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
512 days
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