V-Lab
Data Horizon Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
2,601.04
1 Week
3,214.63
1 Month
5,541.52
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2008 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 121 | |
| αARCH | 0.2265 | 14.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7824 | 55.66*** |
| γleverage | -0.0968 | -4.46*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2494 | 0.81 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9988 | 214.89*** |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2265 | 14.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7824 | 55.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0968 | -4.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2494 | 0.81 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9988 | 214.89*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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