Greentown Service Group Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
8,394.84
decreased by 759.33
1 Week
4,725.63
decreased by 4,428.54
1 Month
1,851.25
decreased by 7,302.92
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2016 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 4265 trading days (~16.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~4265 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 2.01** |
| αARCH | 0.1151 | 4.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8817 | 78.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0061 | 0.16 |
1.000
Persistence4265d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.01** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1151 | 4.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8817 | 78.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0061 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4265 days
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