V-Lab
Pak Tak International ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
5,654.76
1 Week
5,724.50
1 Month
5,730.64
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.1784 | 14.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8705 | 136.54*** |
| γleverage | -0.1195 | -5.68*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.08 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6115 | 10.00*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1840 | 7.09*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1784 | 14.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8705 | 136.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1195 | -5.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6115 | 10.00*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1840 | 7.09*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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