How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	36
αARCH	0.1163	15.63***
βGARCH	0.7697
γleverage	0.2280	15.32***
λ₁tau intercept	5.4367	39.28***
λ₂forecast adj.	1.0000	35.11***
λ₃tau persistence	0.0000	2.50**

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	36
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1163	15.63***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7697
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.2280	15.32***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	5.4367	39.28***
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	1.0000	35.11***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.0000	2.50**

V-Lab

Sheh Fung Screws Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Sheh Fung Screws Co Ltd Analyses