Chilean Peso GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
8.49%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
8.52%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
8.64%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 367 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~367 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0016 | 3.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.0506 | 7.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9475 | 141.56*** |
0.998
Persistence367d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0016 | 3.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0506 | 7.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9475 | 141.56*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
367 days
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