V-Lab
Vinci Shopping Centers Fundo GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
11.03%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
12.57%
increased by 0.87%
1 Month
15.48%
increased by 3.78%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 2.90 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3242 | 1.10 |
| αARCH | 0.1619 | 3.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9062 | 11.00*** |
| νDF | 2.9044 | 3.14*** |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3242 | 1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1619 | 3.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9062 | 11.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9044 | 3.14*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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