V-Lab
Vinci Shopping Centers Fundo GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
10.72%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
11.26%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
12.78%
increased by 1.73%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0431 | 3.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1055 | 2.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8421 | 26.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.0234 | 0.30 |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0431 | 3.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1055 | 2.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8421 | 26.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0234 | 0.30 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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