V-Lab
Vinci Shopping Centers Fundo MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
11.17%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
12.22%
increased by 0.86%
1 Month
12.99%
increased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0965 | 3.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5978 | 6.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0615 | 1.07 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2656 | 2.85*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7286 | 3.70*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.725
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0965 | 3.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5978 | 6.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0615 | 1.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2656 | 2.85*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7286 | 3.70*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.725
Half-life:
2 days
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