Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.77%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

15.01%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

15.95%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 4.97 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst15.3068
1.13
αARCH0.0714
17.63***
βGARCH0.9990
1,003.01***
νDF4.9657
14.95***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.3068
1.13
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0714
17.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,003.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9657
14.95***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days