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SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.66%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

14.89%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

15.74%

increased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 267 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 162% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~267 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 162% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0154
2.82***
αARCH0.0440
2.54**
βGARCH0.9177
68.31***
γleverage0.0713
2.55**

0.997

Persistence

267d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0154
2.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0440
2.54**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9177
68.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0713
2.55**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

267 days