V-Lab
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
14.66%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
14.89%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
15.74%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 267 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 162% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~267 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 162% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0154 | 2.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0440 | 2.54** |
| βGARCH | 0.9177 | 68.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.0713 | 2.55** |
0.997
Persistence267d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0154 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0440 | 2.54** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9177 | 68.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0713 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
267 days
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