V-Lab
S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.51%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
20.57%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
20.75%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 59-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0242 | 4.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0465 | 5.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9406 | 120.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.0597 | 1.10 |
| δpower | 2.0558 | 8.17*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0242 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0465 | 5.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9406 | 120.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0597 | 1.10 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0558 | 8.17*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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