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S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

20.51%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

20.57%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

20.75%

decreased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 59-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0242
4.31***
αARCH0.0465
5.49***
βGARCH0.9406
120.52***
γleverage0.0597
1.10
δpower2.0558
8.17***

0.988

Persistence

59d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0242
4.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0465
5.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9406
120.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0597
1.10
δ

power

Transformation power

2.0558
8.17***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

59 days