V-Lab
S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.02%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
19.96%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
19.77%
decreased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1221 | 5.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0498 | 6.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9223 | 76.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0537 | 2.31** |
| γ2 | -0.0884 | -2.61*** |
| γ3 | 0.0843 | 3.95*** |
| γ4 | -0.1107 | -6.53*** |
| γ5 | 0.0940 | 5.82*** |
| γ6 | -0.0351 | -1.98** |
| γ7 | -0.0094 | -0.30 |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1221 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0498 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9223 | 76.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0537 | 2.31** |
| γ2 | -0.0884 | -2.61*** |
| γ3 | 0.0843 | 3.95*** |
| γ4 | -0.1107 | -6.53*** |
| γ5 | 0.0940 | 5.82*** |
| γ6 | -0.0351 | -1.98** |
| γ7 | -0.0094 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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