V-Lab
Rio Bravo Multiestrategia Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario de Responsabilidade Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
15.88%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Week
16.57%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
18.34%
increased by 1.43%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7959 | 5.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.1535 | 4.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7903 | 25.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0103 | 4.28*** |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7959 | 5.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1535 | 4.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7903 | 25.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0103 | 4.28*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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