V-Lab
Rio Bravo Multiestrategia Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario de Responsabilidade APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
18.60%
1 Week
19.33%
1 Month
21.86%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. The volatility power δ = 1.59 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0607 | 2.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1293 | 3.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8707 | 28.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.0741 | -0.61 |
| δpower | 1.5870 | 7.04*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0607 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1293 | 3.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8707 | 28.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0741 | -0.61 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5870 | 7.04*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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