V-Lab
Rio Bravo Multiestrategia Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario de Responsabilidade Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
17.46%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
17.67%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
18.45%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 346 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~346 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0166 | 2.28** |
| αARCH | 0.0884 | 3.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9024 | 56.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.0144 | 0.39 |
0.998
Persistence346d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0166 | 2.28** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 3.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9024 | 56.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0144 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
346 days
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