V-Lab
Rio Bravo Multiestrategia Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario de Responsabilidade Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
17.38%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
17.60%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
18.44%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1138 trading days (~4.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
APMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1138 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0171 | 2.37** |
| αARCH | 0.0929 | 5.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9018 | 59.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.0396 | 0.69 |
| δpower | 2.1261 | 8.46*** |
0.999
Persistence1138d
Half-lifeμ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0171 | 2.37** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0929 | 5.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9018 | 59.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0396 | 0.69 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.1261 | 8.46*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1138 days
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