V-Lab
CFE Capital S DE RL DE CV GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
9.94%
increased by 0.94%
1 Week
10.22%
increased by 1.22%
1 Month
11.26%
increased by 2.26%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2018 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 365 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~365 daysv = 2.20 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.3215 | 2.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0505 | 15.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9981 | 1,503.17*** |
| νDF | 2.1953 | 259.06*** |
0.998
Persistence365d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3215 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0505 | 15.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9981 | 1,503.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1953 | 259.06*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
365 days
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