V-Lab
CFE Capital S DE RL DE CV GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
12.10%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
12.34%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
13.25%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2018 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~172 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0142 | 1.92* |
| αARCH | 0.1104 | 3.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9037 | 50.83*** |
| γleverage | -0.0363 | -0.75 |
0.996
Persistence172d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0142 | 1.92* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1104 | 3.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9037 | 50.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0363 | -0.75 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
172 days
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