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CFE Capital S DE RL DE CV GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

12.10%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

12.34%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

13.25%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of CFE Capital S DE RL DE CV GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 23, 2018 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~172 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0142
1.92*
αARCH0.1104
3.24***
βGARCH0.9037
50.83***
γleverage-0.0363
-0.75

0.996

Persistence

172d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0142
1.92*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1104
3.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9037
50.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0363
-0.75

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

172 days