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V-Lab

CFE Capital S DE RL DE CV Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

13.36%

decreased by 6.44%

1 Week

10.81%

decreased by 8.99%

1 Month

8.94%

decreased by 10.86%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of CFE Capital S DE RL DE CV S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 23, 2018 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6789
4.19***
αARCH0.2347
4.70***
βGARCH0.3469
3.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.6559
-2.41**
γ24.1255
2.61***
γ3-3.2590
-2.69***
γ42.4108
1.89*
γ50.1757
0.15
γ6-2.0935
-1.80*
γ72.3730
1.65*
γ8-1.5646
-0.93
γ90.3517
0.25
γ100.4712
0.61

0.582

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6789
4.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2347
4.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3469
3.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.6559
-2.41**
γ24.1255
2.61***
γ3-3.2590
-2.69***
γ42.4108
1.89*
γ50.1757
0.15
γ6-2.0935
-1.80*
γ72.3730
1.65*
γ8-1.5646
-0.93
γ90.3517
0.25
γ100.4712
0.61

Persistence:

0.582

Half-life:

1 days