V-Lab
Allurion Technologies Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
163.22%
1 Week
190.27%
1 Month
397.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.154 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
AGARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.3214 | 1.18 |
| βGARCH | 0.8325 | 8.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.0311 | 0.79 |
1.154
Persistence-
Half-lifeAGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3214 | 1.18 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8325 | 8.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0311 | 0.79 |
Persistence:
1.154
Half-life:
-
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