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V-Lab
V-Lab

Allurion Technologies Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

216.07%

decreased by 20.71%

1 Week

251.96%

increased by 15.18%

1 Month

527.80%

increased by 291.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Allurion Technologies Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.154 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.154 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.3215
1.18
βGARCH0.8327
8.73***
γleverage0.0310
0.79

1.154

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3215
1.18
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8327
8.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0310
0.79

Persistence:

1.154

Half-life:

-