V-Lab
L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
9,484.05
1 Week
9,057.65
1 Month
10,478.81
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 17% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0627 | 28.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9319 | 735.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0110 | 2.67*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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