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L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

9,484.05

decreased by 72.57

1 Week

9,057.65

decreased by 498.97

1 Month

10,478.81

increased by 922.19

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 29, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 17% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0627
28.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9319
735.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0110
2.67***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days