Fugro Nv Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
5,045.52
1 Week
5,030.08
1 Month
5,108.51
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 35546 trading days (~141.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 236% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0320 | 6.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9301 | 345.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0757 | 6.69*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
35546 days
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