V-Lab
Ceres Power Holdings plc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,212.82
increased by 48.75
1 Week
5,344.42
increased by 180.35
1 Month
4,954.32
decreased by 209.75
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9673 | 25.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0654 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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