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Ceres Power Holdings plc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

5,212.82

increased by 48.75

1 Week

5,344.42

increased by 180.35

1 Month

4,954.32

decreased by 209.75

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ceres Power Holdings plc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 24, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9673
25.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0654
0.23

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days