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Carasso Motors Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Sunday, July 12th, 2026

1 Day

5,105.84

increased by 708.58

1 Week

4,465.91

increased by 68.65

1 Month

5,312.24

increased by 914.98

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Carasso Motors Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 83% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.57
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0528
14.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9254
480.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0436
7.96***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days