V-Lab
Curis Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
195,884.80
1 Week
231,025.54
1 Month
232,786.66
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 71% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1109 | 40.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8497 | 574.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0788 | 19.28*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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