V-Lab
Agility Global PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
2,158.18
increased by 177.47
1 Week
1,964.22
decreased by 16.49
1 Month
1,780.21
decreased by 200.50
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 2, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 453 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 126% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.70 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0370 | 3.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9382 | 159.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0467 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
453 days
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