V-Lab
Brazilian Real GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
7.13%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
7.33%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
8.06%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~119 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0070 | 6.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0831 | 11.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9111 | 138.56*** |
0.994
Persistence119d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 6.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 11.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9111 | 138.56*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
119 days
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