Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Brazilian Real GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

7.13%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

7.33%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

8.06%

increased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~119 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0070
6.15***
αARCH0.0831
11.19***
βGARCH0.9111
138.56***

0.994

Persistence

119d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0070
6.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0831
11.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9111
138.56***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

119 days