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QRF Sicafi CVA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

16.06%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Week

16.22%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Month

16.81%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of QRF Sicafi CVA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 18, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-lifev = 4.19 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0208
1.38
αARCH0.0746
9.86***
βGARCH0.9895
129.45***
νDF4.1947
4.47***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0208
1.38
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0746
9.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9895
129.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1947
4.47***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days