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QRF Sicafi CVA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

15.79%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

16.06%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

17.08%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of QRF Sicafi CVA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 18, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0167
2.29**
αARCH0.0752
4.17***
βGARCH0.9067
79.52***
γleverage0.0362
0.98

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0167
2.29**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0752
4.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9067
79.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0362
0.98

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-