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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

21.15%

increased by 0.25%

1 Week

21.21%

increased by 0.31%

1 Month

21.44%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 178 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~178 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0120
5.11***
αARCH0.0704
8.92***
βGARCH0.9258
127.39***

0.996

Persistence

178d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0120
5.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0704
8.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9258
127.39***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

178 days