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EYG Gayrimenkul Yatirim Orta GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

58.32%

decreased by 2.18%

1 Week

59.82%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Month

65.24%

increased by 4.74%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of EYG Gayrimenkul Yatirim Orta GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 29, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 daysv = 4.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst69.9256
1.09
αARCH0.1309
9.21***
βGARCH0.9937
203.93***
νDF4.4137
3.07***

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

69.9256
1.09
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1309
9.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9937
203.93***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4137
3.07***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days