V-Lab
EYG Gayrimenkul Yatirim Orta Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
45.47%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
47.67%
increased by 1.66%
1 Month
49.03%
increased by 3.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 29, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7462 | 5.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1692 | 3.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4326 | 2.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.4494 | 0.44 |
| γ2 | 0.8197 | 0.16 |
| γ3 | -7.4494 | -1.73* |
| γ4 | 13.6562 | 1.91* |
| γ5 | -15.9018 | -1.49 |
| γ6 | 11.7271 | 1.21 |
| γ7 | -6.4013 | -1.22 |
| γ8 | 2.7614 | 1.11 |
0.602
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7462 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1692 | 3.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4326 | 2.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.4494 | 0.44 |
| γ2 | 0.8197 | 0.16 |
| γ3 | -7.4494 | -1.73* |
| γ4 | 13.6562 | 1.91* |
| γ5 | -15.9018 | -1.49 |
| γ6 | 11.7271 | 1.21 |
| γ7 | -6.4013 | -1.22 |
| γ8 | 2.7614 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.602
Half-life:
1 days
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