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Dynex Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

23.31%

decreased by 1.54%

1 Week

23.67%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Month

25.08%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dynex Capital Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 292 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~292 daysv = 4.01 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst16.6940
1.81*
αARCH0.1067
30.24***
βGARCH0.9976
817.73***
νDF4.0065
15.37***

0.998

Persistence

292d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.6940
1.81*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1067
30.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9976
817.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0065
15.37***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

292 days