V-Lab
Dynex Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
23.31%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Week
23.67%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
25.08%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 292 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~292 daysv = 4.01 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.6940 | 1.81* |
| αARCH | 0.1067 | 30.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9976 | 817.73*** |
| νDF | 4.0065 | 15.37*** |
0.998
Persistence292d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.6940 | 1.81* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1067 | 30.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 817.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0065 | 15.37*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
292 days
Other Dynex Capital Inc Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Real Estate