V-Lab
Dynex Capital Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
24.94%
decreased by 1.65%
1 Week
25.22%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
26.08%
decreased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6037 | 5.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.1410 | 9.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8271 | 55.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0857 | -1.33 |
| γ2 | 0.2896 | 2.74*** |
| γ3 | -0.4411 | -5.06*** |
| γ4 | 0.3438 | 4.79*** |
| γ5 | -0.1011 | -1.86* |
| γ6 | -0.0191 | -0.40 |
| γ7 | 0.0356 | 0.75 |
| γ8 | -0.0281 | -0.62 |
| γ9 | 0.0008 | 0.03 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6037 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1410 | 9.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8271 | 55.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0857 | -1.33 |
| γ2 | 0.2896 | 2.74*** |
| γ3 | -0.4411 | -5.06*** |
| γ4 | 0.3438 | 4.79*** |
| γ5 | -0.1011 | -1.86* |
| γ6 | -0.0191 | -0.40 |
| γ7 | 0.0356 | 0.75 |
| γ8 | -0.0281 | -0.62 |
| γ9 | 0.0008 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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