Herald Investment Trust PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
8,760.67
1 Week
9,479.62
1 Month
6,866.41
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 113% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0384 | 19.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9398 | 679.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0435 | 10.11*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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