TMH Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
9,144.56
1 Week
3,756.36
1 Month
1,078.16
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 372% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0540 | 5.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8456 | 83.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2009 | 5.91*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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