S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
35.14%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
34.85%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
33.77%
decreased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0186 | 16.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0445 | 29.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9433 | 504.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1298 | -5.97*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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