Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

35.14%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Week

34.85%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Month

33.77%

decreased by 2.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0186
16.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0445
29.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9433
504.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1298
-5.97***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days