V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
24.73%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
24.86%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
25.35%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.28) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0346 | 4.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.0697 | 7.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9192 | 102.30*** |
| γleverage | 0.2807 | 2.51** |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0346 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0697 | 7.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9192 | 102.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2807 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
Other S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Commodities