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S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

24.73%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

24.86%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

25.35%

decreased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.28) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0346
4.26***
αARCH0.0697
7.92***
βGARCH0.9192
102.30***
γleverage0.2807
2.51**

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0346
4.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0697
7.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9192
102.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2807
2.51**

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days