V-Lab
Plaza Retail Reit GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
41.36%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
44.31%
increased by 1.81%
1 Month
54.48%
increased by 11.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 2, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.04 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.04 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 480.7253 | 2.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0759 | 33.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9989 | 2,736.82*** |
| νDF | 2.0392 | 1,822.37*** |
0.999
Persistence654d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 480.7253 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0759 | 33.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 2,736.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0392 | 1,822.37*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
654 days
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